Using Induction Rate to Find Sport’s Most Statistically Strange Hall of Fame Snubs

April 14, 2022 4:00 PM MST

By Dexter Zinman

In every sport that has a Hall of Fame, fans love debating about it. Which active players will get in one day? Who is the most egregious snub? Well if this player got in, then my guy has to get in!

Apart from the elitist of the elite (unless you’re Barry Bonds) Hall of Fame worthiness is to some degree subjective.

There are some stats that make future induction obvious. For pro football, 500 passing touchdowns gets any quarterback in. For hockey, 600 NHL goals is a guarantee. In the NBA, 25,000 career points is a no-doubter. For baseball, it’s…

Well baseball is kind of weird. Between historic accusations of cheating, gambling and throwing games, there are many otherwise all time greats who are still waiting for a spot in baseball’s hall.

But even in the other sports, there are players whose names fans will scream from rooftops when talking about the most deserving who haven’t gotten their respective hall calls yet.

One interesting way to show how much of an outlier some of these snubs are is by taking specific stats (like goals, points, touchdowns, etc.), and looking at these stats’ induction rates.

In other words, the number of Hall of Farmers out of all eligible players within a specific statistical parameter. That means no active players, and no retired players not yet eligible. Although finding induction rates will likely give fans insight as to the Hall of Fame chances of many active players.

The goal is to find, statistically, the biggest hall of fame snub across the four major North American sports.

As stated earlier, NBA players with 25,000 career points have a 100% induction rate, with 18 out of 18 eligible players having a spot in the Hall. 20,000 points is fairly close to 100%, but the omissions of Tom Chambers (20,049 points) and Antawn Jamison (20,042) only gives it a 94.4% induction rate, or 34 of 36 eligible players.

13,000 rebounds sits at 93.3% (14/15) because of Buck Williams (13,017), 3,000 blocks sits at 80% (4/5) due to Mark Eaton (3,064). 10,000 assists also sits at 80% (4/5) due to Mark Jackson (10,344).

The winner in my book is Fat Lever. He had a short career with over 10,000 total points, but massive 43 triple-doubles. He’s the only eligible player with at least 25 to not be in the Hall of Fame. The induction rate for 25 triple-doubles is 11/12, or 91.6%. It’s not as high as the 20,000 points rate, but because there’s only one player, I’ll give Lever the edge over Chambers and Jamison.

The Hockey Hall of Fame’s most egregious omission is one of the easiest to spot. It’s someone who has scored over 500 goals and over 1,300 points, which are goals and assists combined.

As stated earlier, 600 NHL goals has an induction rate of 100%, with 18 out of 18 eligible players finding their way to the Hall. While 500 goals is a massive accomplishment, the club is surprisingly under-represented in the Hall of Fame. The induction rate for 500 goal scorers is only 37 out of 42 eligible players, or 88.1%.

1,300 points, however, is a whole other story. Out of 32 eligible players with at least 1,300 NHL points, all but 1 have been inducted, for a rate of 96.9%. That lone player is Pierre Turgeon, who got his rare distinction as the sole 1,300 point scorer outside the Hall in 2017, when Dave Andreychuck (1,338 points) and Mark Recchi (1,533) were inducted.

Football gets interesting, because success for each position is measured so differently. As stated earlier, 500 passing touchdowns is a statistical mark for quarterbacks where Hall of Fame induction is all but assured. But obviously a football team is not just the quarterback.

A defensive stat with a decent Hall of Fame induction rate is 60 career interceptions. 8 out of 11 eligible players who have reached this total are in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, for a 72.7% induction rate. The only ones that aren’t are Dave Brown (62), Darren Sharper (63) and Ken Riley (65).

For offensive players, 100 career total touchdowns is a mark where every eligible player but 1 has been enshrined. Shaun Alexander and his 112 total touchdowns make him the only player out of 21 eligible players with 100 or more total touchdowns to not be inducted. That gives this stat a 95.2% induction rate.

Shaun Alexander has a decent case to be football’s most statistically egregious HOF snub, but here are a few more interesting notes on Ken Riley. Riley is also the only player in history with at least 65 career interceptions to not be in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, but he is also only 1 of 2 players to record at least 60 interceptions playing for only one team, the other being Hall of Famer Dick LeBeau.

Finally, we come to baseball. Similarly to football, there are a few differences in how different positions are judged. Unlike football (and frankly every other sport looked at today), several players that have been left out of the Baseball Hall of Fame could be seriously considered as the sport’s greatest of all time.

First let’s start with a simple pitching stat. 300 wins. There are 24 eligible pitchers with 300 career wins, and all but one have been inducted, for a 95.8% induction rate. That remaining player is Roger Clemens, whose 354 wins have so far been overshadowed by his steroid use when it comes to his Hall of Fame candidacy.

It’s a similar story for Barry Bonds, who is one of three eligible players out of eight with over 600 home runs to not be inducted. That’s a surprisingly low 62.5% induction rate for 600 home runs without context. Along with Bonds (762), the other two players to not yet be inducted are Alex Rodriguez (696) and Sammy Sosa (609).

The last major baseball statistical milestone to be looked at is 3,000 hits. There are 29 eligible players with 3,000 career hits, and three of them have been left out. Along with Rafael Palmeiro (3,020 hits) and the aforementioned A-Rod (3,115), baseball’s all time hit leader Pete Rose (4,256) is left out of the Hall of Fame due to his lifetime ban for gambling. Again, for 3,000 hits, an 89.7% induction rate feels pretty low for such an incredible achievement.